← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 41% | 52% | 2.36 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 33% | 27% | 2.99 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 26% | 21% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 36' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Laborde · Bordeaux |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lukas Lerager · Bordeaux |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 172.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1654.73 | 1608.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.23 | -62.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| league points | 34.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 25.78 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.52 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |