← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens win | 35% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 34% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 39% | 3.18 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 62' | 🟨 | Christophe Kerbrat · Guingamp |
| 62' | 🟨 | Yannis Salibur · Guingamp |
| 79' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mathieu Bodmer · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1146.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 5.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1516.36 | 1549.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.14 | 29.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| league points | 22.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |