← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 54% | 60% | 1.82 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
| Caen win | 19% | 17% | 5.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Bouna Sarr · Olympique de Marseille |
| 38' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rolando · Olympique de Marseille |
| 53' | 🟨 | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 58' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 74' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 3124.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1477.32 | 1701.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.88 | 22.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.81 |
| league points | 27.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.23 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |