← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 35% | 42% | 2.78 | value: +16% |
| Nantes win | 33% | 28% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 14' | 🟨 | Rene Krhin · Nantes |
| 19' | ⚽ | Rene Krhin · Nantes |
| 38' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 60' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 687.00 | 230.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1555.66 | 1655.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.34 | 1.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 19.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |