← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 39% | 41% | 2.51 | value: +4% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 33% | 21% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.43 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Jessy Moulin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Emmanuel Rivière · Metz |
| 16' | ⚽ | Matthieu Dossevi · Metz |
| 37' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 37' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 77' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 83' | 🟨 | Hernani · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 85' | 🟨 | Hernani · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 85' | 🟥 | Hernani · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 108.00 | 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.25 |
| elo | 1405.99 | 1518.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.36 | -13.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.85 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 12.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -14.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |