← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 41% | 49% | 2.37 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.26 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 29% | 20% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Júnior Alonso · Lille OSC |
| 85' | ⚽ | James Léa Siliki · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Júnior Alonso · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 12 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 47.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1523.35 | 1540.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.31 | -14.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.86 | — |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |