← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.67 | value: +3% |
| Guingamp win | 27% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 13 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 565.00 | 778.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.22 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1559.24 | 1758.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.91 | 2.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| league points | 29.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.38 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |