← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 42% | 43% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Amiens win | 26% | 26% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 49' | 🟨 | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 52' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 72' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Bodmer · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1143.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1517.37 | 1542.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.01 | 3.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |