← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 73% | 79% | 1.34 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.56 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 10% | 5% | 10.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 472.00 | 564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1695.80 | 1510.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.01 | 8.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.61 |
| league points | 41.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 1.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |