← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 56% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.63 | fair |
| Caen win | 17% | 20% | 5.62 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 9' | 🟨 | Jérémy Toulalan · Bordeaux |
| 24' | 🟨 | Timo Stavitski · Caen |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vincent Bessat · Caen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Baissama Sankoh · Caen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · Bordeaux |
| 86' | 🟥 | Paul Baysse · Bordeaux |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 564.00 | 3121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1629.28 | 1537.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.76 | -28.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 27.74 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |