← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 68% | 65% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.76 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 11% | 15% | 8.68 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 21' | 🟨 | Lucas Tousart · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 36' | 🟨 | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 39' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
| 47' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 53' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 84' | 🟨 | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 84' | 🟥 | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 775.00 | 2389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1849.92 | 1588.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.23 | -12.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| league points | 41.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 25.00 | 25.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.23 | — |
| state index | 1.04 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |