← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 48% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 19% | 3.50 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 25% | 29% | 3.98 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 73.00 | 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1554.39 | 1681.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.55 | -4.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 25.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |