← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 63% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.05 | fair |
| Amiens win | 13% | 15% | 7.29 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Patrick Burner · OGC Nice |
| 66' | ⚽ | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 622.00 | 1139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -1.80 |
| -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1624.62 | 1523.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.51 | -35.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.90 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.64 | — |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.50 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |