← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 49% | 50% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Metz win | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 27' | 🟨 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
| 38' | 🟨 | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
| 65' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
| 78' | 🟨 | Vahid Selimovic · Metz |
| 89' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 90' | 🟥 | Papy Djilobodji · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2022.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1494.45 | 1401.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.33 | 40.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |