← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 43% | 41% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.15 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Thiago Maia · Lille OSC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Caen |
| 43' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 44' | 🟥 | Rémy Vercoutre · Caen |
| 52' | 🟥 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Lille OSC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3118.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1466.48 | 1512.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.09 | 7.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 24.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 21.97 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |