← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 36% | 32% | 2.71 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 34% | 37% | 2.87 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Yannis Salibur · Guingamp |
| 14' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
| 15' | 🟨 | Anthony Gonçalves · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 16' | ⚽ | Nicolas Benezet · Guingamp |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 560.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 5.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1527.55 | 1542.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.20 | 29.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |