← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 92% | 87% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 9% | 16.50 | value: +49% |
| Caen win | 2% | 4% | 43.00 | value: +73% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Stef Peeters · Caen |
| 19' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jonathan Delaplace · Caen |
| 57' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Yuri Berchiche · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Santini · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 567.00 | 3094.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1891.76 | 1468.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.44 | -2.28 |
| eye test v1 | 1.69 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 47.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.61 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.73 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.24 | — |
| state index | 1.60 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.38 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |