← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 36% | 28% | 2.74 | fair |
| Metz win | 35% | 29% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 43% | 3.37 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Julian Palmieri · Metz |
| 54' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Metz |
| 61' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 61' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 69' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jonathan Rivierez · Metz |
| 83' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Rivière · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 80.00 | 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1378.92 | 1550.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.74 | 49.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |