← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 51% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 37% | 3.59 | value: +31% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 24' | 🟥 | Alexander Søderlund · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 29' | 🟨 | Cheikh M'Bengue · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 67' | ⚽ | Hernani · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 70' | ⚽ | Nicolas Benezet · Guingamp |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nicolas Benezet · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de Roudourou |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 537.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.99 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1534.56 | 1514.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.81 | -32.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| league points | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.30 | -1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |