← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 45% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.08 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 24% | 24% | 4.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
| 28' | 🟨 | Théo Pellenard · Bordeaux |
| 51' | 🟨 | Facundo Piriz · Montpellier |
| 56' | 🟨 | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jonathan Ikoné · Montpellier |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jaroslav Plašil · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 537.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1638.85 | 1597.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.75 | -5.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 26.42 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |