← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 48% | 43% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.44 | value: +12% |
| Dijon win | 23% | 25% | 4.25 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
| 24' | 🟨 | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 32' | 🟨 | Mehdi Tahrat · Angers SCO |
| 43' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
| 54' | 🟨 | Xeka · Dijon |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ádám Lang · Dijon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ádám Lang · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ádám Lang · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 16 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 2364.00 | 1998.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1501.33 | 1502.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.24 | 20.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |