← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 35% | 43% | 2.82 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.94 | fair |
| Amiens win | 32% | 24% | 3.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Prince Gouano · Amiens |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 79' | 🟨 | Harisson Manzala · Amiens |
| 86' | 🟨 | Oualid El Hajjam · Amiens |
| 89' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1115.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1533.77 | 1567.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.89 | 2.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |