← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 51% | 47% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 19% | 27% | 5.24 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Romain Thomas · Angers SCO |
| 13' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 24' | 🟨 | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 63' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Angers SCO |
| 65' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 65' | 🟥 | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 199.00 | 2361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1560.94 | 1508.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.69 | -35.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 27.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.53 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |