← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 43% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.44 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonas Martin · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 29' | 🟨 | Kader Mangane · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 30' | ⚽ | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Bakary Koné · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kader Mangane · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 59' | 🟨 | Giannelli Imbula · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 533.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1543.40 | 1498.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.79 | -23.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |