← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 81% | 75% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +16% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 6% | 10% | 15.50 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 45.00 | 563.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.17 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1563.59 | 1885.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.09 | -0.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 1.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 68.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 2.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 13.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 2.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.24 |
| state index | 0.45 | 1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |