← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 40% | 40% | 2.42 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 57' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3090.00 | 533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 4.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1468.03 | 1534.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.01 | 17.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |