← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 44% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 26% | 31% | 3.80 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Nantes |
| 21' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 37' | 🟨 | Adrien Tameze · OGC Nice |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 42' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 68' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 85' | 🟨 | Arnaud Souquet · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 192.00 | 588.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1654.95 | 1681.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.96 | -6.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.38 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |