← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 57% | 67% | 1.71 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.06 | fair |
| Amiens win | 19% | 12% | 5.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Serge Gakpé · Amiens |
| 27' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 79' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 88' | 🟨 | Lucas Tousart · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1105.00 | 740.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1552.50 | 1744.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.36 | -0.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.00 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.81 |
| league points | 21.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.49 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |