← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 43% | 46% | 2.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.17 | fair |
| Caen win | 26% | 23% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Damien Da Silva · Toulouse FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 648.00 | 3083.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1486.57 | 1480.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.16 | 4.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -1.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |