← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 44% | 51% | 2.21 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 30% | 20% | 3.29 | fair |
| Metz win | 26% | 30% | 3.78 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
| 15' | 🟨 | Adrien Hunou · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 28' | 🟨 | James Léa Siliki · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Chris Philipps · Metz |
| 41' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Metz |
| 56' | 🟨 | Joris Gnagnon · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Niane · Metz |
| 86' | ⚽ | Firmin Ndombe Mubele · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 69.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 4.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1350.52 | 1567.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.32 | 33.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 4.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.59 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.80 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |