← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 35% | 41% | 2.83 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.94 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 32% | 27% | 3.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 25' | 🟨 | Vitorino Hilton · Montpellier |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 42' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Montpellier |
| 51' | ⚽ | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
| 56' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 2353.00 | 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1509.00 | 1540.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.64 | 23.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.87 |
| league points | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.16 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |