← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 52% | 52% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
| Caen win | 22% | 23% | 4.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Maxwel Cornet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mariano Díaz · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mariano Díaz · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adama Mbengue · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3077.00 | 733.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1484.88 | 1750.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.58 | 12.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.24 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.91 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.01 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |