← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 79% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 14% | 9.60 | value: +34% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 4% | 7% | 22.00 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 29 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 13 |
| 20 | Fouls | 5 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 519.00 | 549.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1502.04 | 1900.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.34 | 26.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 70.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 68.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 2.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.17 |
| state index | -0.36 | 1.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 1.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |