← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 49% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.14 | fair |
| Amiens win | 20% | 19% | 4.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bongani Zungu · Amiens |
| 50' | 🟨 | Issa Cissokho · Amiens |
| 52' | 🟨 | Harisson Manzala · Amiens |
| 56' | 🟨 | Danilo Avelar · Amiens |
| 59' | 🟨 | James Léa Siliki · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 16 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| coach days | 31.00 | 1097.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1554.96 | 1565.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.94 | 38.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |