← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 65% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.56 | fair |
| Metz win | 14% | 16% | 7.16 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 29' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 38' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 71' | ⚽ | Allan Saint-Maximin · OGC Nice |
| 76' | 🟨 | Opa Nguette · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 580.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1614.11 | 1354.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.85 | -27.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.46 | — |
| state index | 0.03 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | -1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |