← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 73% | 81% | 1.35 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.73 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 10% | 6% | 9.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mariano Díaz · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Ponce · Lille OSC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 729.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1854.10 | 1582.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.17 | -10.01 |
| eye test v1 | 1.32 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 43.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 29.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.53 | 22.51 |
| state index | 1.96 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |