← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Wed, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 35% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 33% | 40% | 2.97 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
| 60' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yannis Salibur · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 516.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1512.33 | 1537.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.19 | 21.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |