← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Tue, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 55% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 19% | 21% | 5.28 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Bordeaux |
| 31' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jonathan Cafú · Bordeaux |
| 38' | 🟨 | Vincent Pajot · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 57' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Bordeaux |
| 64' | 🟨 | Saidy Janko · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 515.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1669.64 | 1625.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.73 | -45.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 26.32 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |