← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Tue, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piccirillo Herve
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amiens win | 39% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.17 | value: +22% |
| Dijon win | 30% | 23% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 15' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 50' | ⚽ | Quentin Cornette · Amiens |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frédéric Sammaritano · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1093.00 | 1976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1558.77 | 1495.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.77 | 39.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |