← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 50% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 20% | 22% | 4.85 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
| 26' | ⚽ | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
| 31' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
| 35' | 🟨 | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Vitorino Hilton · Montpellier |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Lille OSC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Júnior Alonso · Lille OSC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Lille OSC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Edgar Ié · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 208.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1603.00 | 1597.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.46 | -4.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 43.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.61 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |