← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 42% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
| Caen win | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Bordeaux |
| 62' | 🟨 | Romain Genevois · Caen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Adama Mbengue · Caen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Théo Pellenard · Bordeaux |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alexandre Mendy · Bordeaux |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3069.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1552.67 | 1681.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.42 | -37.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.80 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.86 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |