← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Mon, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 36% | 41% | 2.76 | value: +13% |
| Amiens win | 34% | 26% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.22 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Amadou · Lille OSC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Harisson Manzala · Amiens |
| 48' | ⚽ | Harisson Manzala · Amiens |
| 60' | 🟨 | Julien Ielsch · Amiens |
| 64' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 78' | 🟨 | Guy Ngosso · Amiens |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Lille OSC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 1085.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 3.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1534.13 | 1534.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.21 | 7.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.29 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 43.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.78 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |