← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 63% | 70% | 1.55 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.32 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 14% | 9% | 6.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Facundo Piriz · Montpellier |
| 23' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bertrand Traoré · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 719.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1841.03 | 1595.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.79 | 25.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 25.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.07 | — |
| state index | 1.87 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |