← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sébastien Desiage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 36% | 36% | 2.71 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 33% | 33% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Baissama Sankoh · Caen |
| 40' | ⚽ | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 55' | 🟨 | Adrien Tameze · OGC Nice |
| 75' | 🟨 | Walter Benítez · OGC Nice |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3063.00 | 567.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1468.02 | 1616.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.50 | -35.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |