← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 53% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
| Metz win | 19% | 20% | 5.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Metz |
| 23' | 🟥 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Toulouse FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Matthieu Dossevi · Metz |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 627.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1602.19 | 1475.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.42 | -41.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| league points | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.83 | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.48 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |