← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 46% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.26 | value: +13% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 24% | 22% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand