← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 46% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.26 | value: +13% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 24% | 22% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 505.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1540.54 | 1627.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.08 | 4.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 24.13 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |