← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 42% | 45% | 2.33 | value: +5% |
| Angers SCO win | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 14' | ⚽ | Abdoul Camara · Guingamp |
| 17' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 23' | ⚽ | Yoann Andreu · Angers SCO |
| 26' | 🟨 | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 43' | 🟨 | Franck Tabanou · Guingamp |
| 53' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Angers SCO |
| 58' | 🟨 | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 61' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 61' | 🟥 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gilles Sunu · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 505.00 | 2332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1517.73 | 1543.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.15 | -1.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |