← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 44% | 52% | 2.24 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 26% | 21% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Loïc Perrin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 20' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Kévin Malcuit · Lille OSC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Bamba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 71' | ⚽ | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Lille OSC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ezequiel Ponce · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 3.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1601.31 | 1643.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.86 | -32.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.20 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.88 | — |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |