← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 39% | 37% | 2.49 | fair |
| Metz win | 32% | 26% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 37% | 3.39 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 35' | 🟨 | Farès Bahlouli · Lille OSC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Opa Nguette · Metz |
| 44' | 🟨 | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Farès Bahlouli · Lille OSC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
| 87' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 35.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 4.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1379.84 | 1506.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.18 | -37.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 22.68 |
| state index | -1.21 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |