← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 64% | 69% | 1.54 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
| Caen win | 14% | 11% | 7.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 400.00 | 3049.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1673.33 | 1475.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.35 | 12.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | — |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |